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AIC
UPDATE - June
2005 | Vol. 2 | No. 25
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President-Elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - he vows to
work for the poor and clean up
corruption, but his election has sparked concerns
over social restrictions and
economic upheaval.
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Outgoing President Mohammed Khatami - his Reform
movement
which swept into power in 1997 has earned modest
social and cultural victories, but has suffered serious
setbacks in each of the subsequent elections.
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AIC Update is an information resource for US-Iran
relations and the efforts of the American Iranian
Council to promote dialogue and understanding
between the United States and Iran.
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| Election Analysis: A Conservative Mandate? |
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In a runoff election on June 24, Iranian voters
chose
Tehran's conservative mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
over the former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. When
the first round of voting ended on June 17, the
country was seriously divided over who they believed
to be the best choice for President with no single
person receiving more than 50% of the vote, required
to win in the first round. Held only one week after
the first round, the run-off election did little to
transform Iranian factionalism.
While preelection polls and analysis had failed to
predict the outcome, they properly assumed that
Iranian voters were divided and the first round
illustrated that they were genuinely divided amongst
who they believed should be their first choice.
Following the first round of voting, the Reformist and
Conservative camps appeared evenly split amongst
Iranian voters, with Hashemi Rafsanjani comfortably
leading as an independent centrist with 6,159,453
votes. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had earned his place in
the second round with almost six million (5,710,354)
votes, and an additional 6 million were split between
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (4,075,189) and Ali Larijani
(1,740,163), totaling an estimated 12 million
Conservative votes. Ahmadinejad would have been
expected to carry these votes in the second round.
Third place finisher Mehdi Karroubi, a reform-minded
cleric who had more than five million votes
(5,066,316), led the loosely constructed Reformist
camp. An additional 6 million votes belonged to
Mostafa Moeen (4,054,304) and Mohsen
Mehralizadeh (1,221,940), totaling around 11 million
Reformist votes. Had the Reformists enthusiastically
lined up behind the pragmatist Rafsanjani, he would
have earned approximately 16 million votes in the
second round.
While hardliners are jubilant that Ahmadinejad won,
they should be careful not to view this as a
Conservative mandate. Following the first round,
there were more votes leaning towards the center-
left, than towards the hard-line camp. In light of
this evidence, there are two possibilities that explain
Ahmadinejad's surprise win; 1) a recomposition of the
electorate (ie. first round failures demobilized liberal
votes while mobilizing conservative votes), 2) a voter
shift (ie. some five million voters transferred their
vote from left leaning candidates to the conservative
candidate). A combination of the two possibilities is
likely to have occurred.
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| In Other Politics |
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Iran and Afghanistan signed an agreement to
facilitate the repatriation of Afghan refugees from
Iran. The agreement underlines the voluntary nature
of the repatriation operation and also ensures the
provision of basic support and assistance during the
process, including transportation, medical facilities
and customs procedures.
AFGHANISTAN-IRAN: Tripartite refugee agreement
signed
http://w
ww.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/f747c80053a
7c9d77effc674f5aacfae.htm
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| Economic Headlines |
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As a result of the election of Tehran Mayor
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, oil prices rose early in the
week. The price spike was largely attributed to
nervousness caused by the President-elect's
economic rhetoric.
Oil drops more than $2 as it falls back below $60 a
barrel
http://www.usatoday.com/money/ind
ustries/energy/2005-06-28-crude-update_x.htm
President Mohammad Khatami and Malian President
Amadou Toumani Toure together signed three
documents focused on economic development. The
three accords focused on diplomatic relations as well
as building dams and improving educational facilities
in Mali.
Iranian, Malian officials sign three landmark economic
accords
http://www.irna.ir/en/n
ews/view/menu-236/0506300940201032.htm
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| About Us |
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Vision
The vision of the American Iranian Council is that the
United States and Iran will work together, since their
common interests far outweigh their differences. AIC
also envisions the Iranian-American community
playing an increasingly significant role in American
society, and Iran becoming a democratically
developed member of the global community with full
respect for human rights.
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Mission
The mission of AIC is to be a constructive force, in
cooperation and partnership with other organizations,
in bringing the United States and Iran together,
involving the Iranian-American community in the
dialogue, and bringing attention to social and political
conditions in Iran.
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Goals
The three
interrelated goals of the American Iranian Council
are:
1.
To serve as a platform for sustained dialogue on U.S.-
Iran relations.
2. To serve as a catalyst to educate all Americans,
including Iranian-Americans, regarding this
dialogue.
3. To serve as a forum for discussion of issues of
importance in Iranian society.
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Copyright © 2005 American Iranian Council. All
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