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The Obama administration has criticized the Iranian regime and its policies and the United States and other countries have put tough sanctions on Iran. The question remains, however, how the Iranian rulers perceive the situation. In their speeches and writings, they argue that America is weak and crumbling. This is, in part, propaganda, but to a considerable degree it is also clear that they believe this to be true. For example in an article that recently appeared on Gerdab, a website run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, postings conclude that America is worn out from its involvement in multiple Middle East wars and that in the event that Iran does produce an atomic bomb, the country is too strained to attack Iran; and it would not allow Israel to take such action.
The Guards in their analysis quote British Middle East analyst Patrick Seale, who in recent comments pointed to the depletion of American stamina. Seale maintained that the U.S. has begun a quiet and deliberate withdrawal from the Middle East and that it is incapable of confronting Iran even if it is verified that the Iranians are on the verge of developing nuclear weapons.
The article states that it is a rare instance where Arab leaders, activists, intellectuals, and allies simultaneously face the same challenge they are all dealing with this summer. All equations inside and outside the Arab world are shifting.
According to the article quoting Seale, there are two main issues whose resolution will have major influence on the future of the Arab world. The first is clearer and that is regarding the revolutionary wave radiating throughout the region:
The main question therefore is, how can it be assured that the big burst of energy that produced the populistic force can have a positive effect; meaning that can this power that the Arab Spring created remain just, stable, and burgeoning, while making sure that it does not turn violent and chaotic?
The article continues that without a doubt the United States and its Western allies "will slowly but surely extricate their forces from the Middle East and Central Asia. Also, the security umbrella is from yesteryears (prior to the Second World War), which is conventional to the region, and will be effectively eliminated as well. This process has already begun in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and though there are the exceptional American bases in the Persian Gulf, they will not last very long either."
The analysis weighs in on the financial trouble in America: "It appears that subsequent to several wars, the United States finds itself depleted and desperate. Their total debt exceeds $14.5 trillion which is equal to America's GDP. Seemingly this year's $900 billion will not stretch to cover the defense and military budget of the years to come. The United States will retreat from the world of Islam and the Arab world so that it can refocus its energy on China, which, in the American view, is its global rival."
Recently, Iranian officials have increased their call for the U.S. forces to leave the region. This is while they continue to help Shiite militias in Iraq and Taliban fighters and al-Qaeda elements in Afghanistan to attack our forces.
The Iranians are also exerting pressure on the U.S. and its allies in the region by helping to incite unrest in Yemen, Bahrain, and elsewhere while calling for the unification of Muslims against Israel and America.
The strategy of the radicals ruling Iran is to keep the U.S. fixed in these theaters knowing full well the cost of the wars. They know that in order to achieve their goal of seeing the demise of America, they need to create circumstances where the U.S. can no longer afford the financial burden of protecting its interests in the region and therefore will be forced to withdraw its forces, allowing Iran to expand and exert power.
To that effect, the Iranian officials have boasted that this is the century of the Islamic awakening and that Islamic nations will soon be able to control the world's economy through the control of oil and the world's strategic passages.
The Iranian leaders also have led themselves to believe that as long as the U.S. is financially weak, as long as oil prices remain high, and as long as it remains involved in multiple wars, the country would not dare confront Iran. Such is the reasoning behind the continuation of a nuclear program.
Iran believes that it is witnessing America's weakness an they are waiting for the opportune time to capitalize on such. Radicals ruling Iran think that is only a matter of time.
This article originally appeared on PipeLineNews.org on July 21, 2011. (By Reza Kahlili)